The Ideal Phillies Trade Deadline

The Phillies core is aging. The championship window is closing. A lockout is imminent. The Phillies must go all-in by 6pm on Thursday, July 31.

Okay, the lockout thing might be extreme, but it is possible, based on Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper's recent comments about their spat with Commissioner Rob Manfred. There's a real possibility we don't see an MLB season in either 2026 or 2027 - the latter of which just so happens to be the final year of Zack Wheeler's career.

It's all the more reason for the Phillies to do whatever it takes to build a World Series caliber team at the deadline.

So, how can they do that? Let's find out.

Addressing their Needs

What is the Phillies biggest need this season? The outfield trio of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Max Kepler is clearly not working and needs an upgrade. Bryson Stott has been very inconsistent. While the top of the Phillies rotation is stellar, guys like Jesus Luzardo and Taijjuan Walker haven't exactly been the best. But we all know what the biggest issue is:

The Bullpen

With Emmanuel Clase off the market - thanks to his seemingly impending gambling suspension - the relievers currently on the market have become even more valuable. The Minnesota Twins are said to be asking for Andrew Painter - the Phillies top prospect and number eight prospect in all of baseball - as a "starting point" in negotiations for reliever Jhoan Duran. They are completely out of their minds if they view that as a real starting point. Painter - a guy who I am willing to trade - is a name that shouldn't even come up in negotiations for Duran, who is a solid reliever who could help the Phillies. But he's not that good.

I could see the Phillies adding Duran's teammate and fellow reliever, Griffin Jax. Presumably, Jax's asking price will be lower than that of Duran's, but it still seems as though the Twins are asking for a hefty return. The tough part of Dave Dombrowski's job is scouring the market for where he can find the best value. For example, if Jax is going to cost Justin Crawford and Mick Abel, you need to make sure you can't get someone like David Bednar from the Pirates for, say, Mick Abel and Dante Nori. I totally support giving up prospects, but it has to be the right deal.

Speaking of Bednar, the Phillies are reportedly interested in both him and his teammate, Dennis Santana. Reportedly, the Pirates are looking for, at minimum, a top five prospect just for Bednar. At the same time, ESPN's Eric Karabell has floated the idea that simply Eduardo Tait (the Phillies #4 prospect) could be enough to capture both Bednar and Santana. Both are under team control until 2027. Santana has an impressive 1.39 ERA across 45.1 IP, while Bednar has had a terrific turn around.

After his first three outings of the season resulted in a 27.00 ERA, Bednar was demoted to AAA. Since being brought back up in late April, he has saved 16 games and has a 1.70 ERA across 37.0 IP. Monday night against the Giants, he entered the bottom of the ninth with a 2 run lead and allowed them to cut that in half, but still saved the game. Prior to that, he hadn't allowed an earned run since May 23.

The tandem of Bednar and Santana added to the Phillies bullpen would be the remedy to all of their ills. If it takes Eduardo Tait and perhaps another top 10 prospect, such as OF Gabriel Rincones, to get the deal done, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Come October, team owner John Middleton has teased the Phillies will be running a three-man rotation - likely Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez. The Postseason bullpen would look like:

RHP David Bednar RHP Dennis Santana LHP Matt Strahm RHP Orion Kerkering LHP Tanner Banks RHP David Robertson LHP Ranger Suarez RHP Taijuan Walker LHP Jesus Luzardo RHP Max Lazar

I would DFA Jordan Romano upon the addition of Bednar & Santana. Even if the Phillies decide to instead run a 4-man rotation, Ranger Suarez would be included there. The only thing you're potentially lacking is left handed options during the regular season, when Luzardo is still in the rotation, but reminder: while he won't be available for the postseason, LHP Jose Alvarado can come back from his PED suspension towards the end of August.

Ideal Bullpen Acquisitions: C Eduardo Tait & OF Gabriel Rincones to Pittsburgh for RHP David Bednar & RHP Dennis Santana

Outfield

The trio of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Max Kepler have shared the left field and center field duties for the Phillies during the first half of the season. They have failed miserably, with the three of them combining for a -0.1 WAR. Max Kepler, who has played in 93 of the Phillies 106 games - the most of any outfielder on the team besides Nick Castellanos - has complained about not being in the lineup everyday. Johan Rojas has a .223 average, with an OPS below .600, presenting himself as basically an automatic out at the plate. Brandon Marsh has been the best hitter in the group - which isn't saying much - with a .253 BA and .678 OPS.

Three years ago, when the Phillies won the National League, one of their biggest deadline acquisitions was Brandon Marsh. He's yet to prove himself as an everyday player and the Phillies are in the same situation they were at that time - still in need of an outfielder.

I think you can live with a Marsh-Rojas platoon in center. Marsh is not a particularly good hitter, but he's serviceable. Rojas has been awful at the plate, but he's terrific in the field. Kepler feels like the odd man out, and the Phillies would benefit tremendously from an upgrade in left field. But what if that upgrade came internally?

"It's been hot and cold," Dombrowski said about the offense. "Some of that fix has to come internal. It just has to. You're not going to go out and make a bunch of trades. You can look to supplement, but some of our guys internally, I think, we hope will do better."

In that moment, Dombrowski was speaking about the offense as a whole. He was repeating the mantra that I've supported for years now - you can't just go and add guys and expect things to change. Eventually, the Bryce Harpers and JT Realmutos of the world will have to play better. And they have.

Harper, Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner have been excellent as of late. Nick Castellanos has been fine. You need Marsh/Rojas/Kepler to improve, but at a certain point, you have to accept that's just not going to happen. Do you go out and trade for an outfielder? That'll probably be a move similar to the Austin Hays addition at last year's deadline, which didn't work out for a number of reasons. It seems as though the Phillies have already begun to look internally, with Kyle Schwarber playing left field on Sunday's game in the Bronx. What could that mean?

Going All In.

Getting the best bat on the market - Eugenio Suarez.

He's been one of the lone offensive bright spots for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season - who, despite being within striking distance of a Wild Card spot, have already begun to sell, shipping Josh Naylor to Seattle. Suarez's contract expires at season's end, meaning he will be a rental. He'll be looking for a decent chunk of change in free agency, something the Phillies will not be interested in offering him. But for now? For the final stretch of the 2025 season? He could be the difference between this era of Phillies baseball being a success, or a total disappointment.

Not only is Suarez the best hitter on the market, but he's also been one of the best hitters in baseball this year. The 33-year-old made his second career All-Star Game and has homered 36 times - tied with Kyle Schwarber for fourth most in baseball. He's also driven in an MLB best 87 runs - Schwarber isn't far behind, with 84 RBI of his own. The middle of the Phillies order consisting of Bryce Harper, Eugenio Suarez, and Kyle Schwarber would simply be unstoppable. So, what will it take to get him?

He has a lot of suitors - naturally, as he is the best bat available. The Phillies will have to be willing to outbid anyone and everyone for him, which is something Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to. Dombrowski has developed a reputation for blowing up farm systems, but bringing home a World Series. He hasn't done either of those things in Philadelphia - yet.

Dombo has to balance the fact that the addition of Suarez would seriously tilt their chances of winning it all, but also that he will be a rental. That being said, based on mock trades being floated, something like Phillies #5 and #6 prospects, respectively, 2B Aroon Escobar and RHP Mick Abel may be enough to bring Suarez to the City of Brotherly Love.

I bring up the fact that Schwarber was in left the other day because this perhaps could've been a test run. If Alec Bohm in not included in the exchange for Suarez, you'd have a positional log jam of sorts. Suarez becomes your third baseman, while Bohm - once he returns from injury - presumably slides to first. Now, Bryce Harper - who has been clear that he'd be willing to move back to the outfield, if necessary - and Kyle Schwarber will have to play DH and LF. If you go the route of sending Harper to the outfield, he's likely more comfortable in RF, where he used to play. This moves an already shaky Nick Castellanos to left field and Schwarber remains your DH. Or, Harper plays DH (or RF and Castellanos becomes your DH) while Schwarber - who certainly isn't a sure thing, defensively - becomes your LF. He's never been a good defender, but he has played plenty of left field throughout his career. The defense may not be terrific, but if you can get a bat like Suarez, you do it and figure out the details later.

Ideal Offensive Acquisition: 2B Aroon Escobar & RHP Mick Abel to Arizona for 3B Eugenio Suarez

Now, that likely won't be the full extent of the deal. The Phillies will probably have to include more prospects - likely inconsequential - and may get someone else back. But that should be the focal point of the deal.

As for other additions, the first one is addition by subtraction - DFAing Max Kepler. I applauded the signing of both Kepler and Romano, as buy-low guys, but at this point, it's time to cut bait. Both of them have shown why they were buy-low and are at a point in their careers where they just aren't helping you win any games. Here's your starting lineup, now:

SS Trea Turner (R) DH Bryce Harper (L)

3B Eugenio Suarez (R) LF Kyle Schwarber (L) C JT Realmuto (R)

RF Nick Castellanos (R) 2B Bryson Stott (L) 3B Alec Bohm (R) CF Brandon Marsh (L)/Johan Rojas (R)

I know this isn't exactly the lineup they've been using, but it's my attempt at keeping some alternating righty-lefty balance, like Rob Thomson has always been fond of. Your bench would consist of Marsh/Rojas, INF Edmundo Sosa (R), UTIL Otto Kemp (R), C Rafael Marchan (R). Sosa has been rumored to be traded, and while I'm a fan of his, Kemp has come on strong and the Phillies may be looking for a lefty bat off the bench. When Marsh is starting, they won't have one between Rojas, Sosa, Kemp, and Marchan. Twins switch hitter Willi Castro has been linked to the Phillies, but that seemingly only happens if the Phillies acquire one of their relievers. Besides, Castro isn't a bench option - he'd likely start in left if the Phillies don't acquire Suarez, or if Bohm is shipped to AZ.

I'd be remiss if I also didn't mention outfielders Jo Adell and Taylor Ward from the Angels, outfielder Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox, and relief pitcher Ryan Helsley from the Cardinals, who are guys the Phillies have seemingly expressed interest in. I wouldn't be mad about those additions, but they don't fit into the plan I laid out here. Unless, of course, Bohm does in fact go to Arizona.

We'll be keeping a close eye on every Phillies rumor - credible or not - over the next 48 hours. This deadline is critical for the legacy of this era of Phillies baseball. Dave Dombrowski has the opportunity to make a few moves that will make him beloved in the city forever. He also has the opportunity to sit on his hands, and his teams will become a classic case of "what could have been." I hope he chooses the former.